Australia's federal government has committed to cutting net overseas migration (NOM) to 245,000 this financial year and 225,000 in 2027–28, under long-awaited changes to the immigration rules announced as both major parties compete on migration policy.

The policy unveiling followed a One Nation pledge to reduce the number of temporary migrants in Australia by more than 750,000 over three years, targeting international students and family members of skilled migrants. One Nation's plan would set an annual NOM ceiling of 130,000.

The numbers are exact. The human effects, migrants say, are harder to quantify. Refugees, asylum seekers and migrants across Australia report growing anxiety and a fear of exclusion as the political competition over migration intensifies.

Who is affected

The changes reach several groups. In mid-September, Labor announced that foreign citizens staying in Australia without a valid visa would face measures forcing them to leave the country. Policy changes would also affect backpackers and prevent international students from extending their stays indefinitely.

Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke said at the time: "The government supports immigration but is opposed to anyone rorting the immigration system."

Burke addressed the National Press Club in a speech titled "The work of managing the migration program: who arrives, who stays, who leaves." He rejected any suggestion he or the government had remained silent in the face of harmful rhetoric targeting migrant communities, saying he had "spent [his] entire political life standing up against hate speech" and insisting Australians were "capable of having a mature debate about this" issue.

"Behind every migration number is a person"

Shamsullah Sadey, 19, fled Taliban-controlled Afghanistan and arrived in Australia with his family in 2024, aiming to become a neurosurgeon. The high school student now feels "uncertain" about his future and says that for "the first time I've genuinely felt unwelcome" in Australia.

"It's quite disheartening. Behind every migration number is a person and a family and a story," Sadey says. "Australia can have a well-managed migration system while also treating migrants and refugees with dignity."

"Australia has given me more than enough. I hope Australia remains a place where young people from refugee and migrant backgrounds can feel that they belong and have a future. I just hope that we don't lose sight of the human side of migration."

Kobra Sayyadi, 27, came to Australia from Pakistan in 2010 after being sponsored by her brother, a refugee, and built a career in the creative arts. She says the minister's speech — which she notes "mentioned doctors and construction workers and nurses" — signalled that only certain professions are welcome.

"It feels very much like they're focusing only on the economic gains that will come from this migration reforms. I'd ask him to also pay attention to the social costs that can come as a result of it," she says. "What about roles in public services and community services in the arts? Those are the things that make people's lives meaningful, and that's what makes Australia rich as a country. So why try and stifle that?"

Saad Khalid, 24, a Canberra-based ethnic community broadcaster who arrived from Pakistan as an international student shortly before the Covid lockdowns, says the tone of the debate has left him and others "on the edge." He says people are becoming "more conscious of the way their accents are heard, whether their name or surname immediately identifies them as coming from somewhere else."

He also warns of a disinformation risk: "You announce something in Canberra and within a few minutes it's in WhatsApp groups, it's in WeChat groups... A lot of migrant groups are very confused... whether Australia is a welcome home for them."

Experts warn of "dehumanising" framing

Laurie Berg, associate professor at the University of Technology Sydney, calls it "disappointing that all sides of politics are now fixated on a single number" — the NOM.

"The dehumanising impact of reducing migrants to numbers inflames anti-migrant sentiment," Berg says. "The focus on NOM can suggest an assumption that migrants are to blame for social ills like shortages of housing or cost-of-living [pressures]. This is not sensible policymaking."

She warns the debate can leave migrant communities feeling "scapegoated rather than valued" and "gives social licence to Australians to treat migrants as disposable and exploit them."

Ogy Simic, head of advocacy at the Asylum Seeker Research Centre, says the discourse "has been dominated by far-right voices." He partly blames the Albanese government for allowing the conversation to become more hostile.

"Migrants and refugees are constantly talked about as a problem to be cracked down on, blamed or feared," Simic says. He notes the centre is receiving more reports of people being targeted on the street, more racist abuse in public and "an enormous amount of racism online that is increasingly spilling into everyday life."

Simic says the fear spreads well beyond those directly affected by any single policy: "They're worried and asking: 'Does this affect me? Am I going to lose my work rights? Is my visa at risk? What does this mean for my family?' Entire communities start wondering whether they could be next."

Neo-Nazis and politicians were among protesters at anti-immigration March for Australia rallies held across the country in 2025. The marches were condemned as hateful by Burke and the federal government but attended by One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, senator Malcolm Roberts and independent MP Bob Katter.

University of Sydney professor Ghassan Hage worries the debate is drifting away from legitimate discussion. "Debates where 'everyone' is entitled to an opinion regardless of expertise are inevitably racist festivals," he says. "The voice of those who are debated is seldom heard."

Migrants and applicants affected by the changes should track official announcements from the Department of Home Affairs and the minister's office for precise eligibility requirements, caps and deadlines as the new NOM targets take effect.