A recurring question frames Germany's immigration debate: do non-German nationals commit more crimes than German citizens? A new data analysis published by Deutsche Welle (DW) examines the official figures behind that claim and tests whether the raw numbers support the conclusions politicians draw from them.

German police statistics record the nationality of suspects, and those tables regularly resurface in public debate each time the annual crime report appears. The DW analysis works through what the numbers say, how they are counted, and where simple comparisons mislead.

What does the raw data show?

Crime statistics in Germany list suspects by citizenship, so offenses attributed to non-Germans can be read directly from the tables. That reading is the starting point of the debate. But the DW analysis stresses that a suspect is not a convicted offender, and that the recorded figures reflect suspicion, not proven guilt.

The analysis also highlights structural factors that shape who appears in the statistics at all — and who does not.

Which comparisons distort the picture?

Demographics drive much of the gap. Non-German nationals in Germany skew younger and more male than the general population, and young men commit the majority of crimes in every country. Age and sex, not citizenship alone, explain part of the difference between groups.

Detection rates add another distortion. People without a fixed residence or regular status surface more easily in police records, while some offenses — such as immigration-related violations — can, by definition, only apply to foreigners. Germans cannot appear in those categories at all.

Why does the framing matter?

Crime statistics rarely travel with their context. A single figure — the share of suspects without a German passport — circulates in headlines and political speeches, while the demographic corrections and counting rules stay behind. The DW analysis aims to close that gap by walking through the dataset step by step.

For readers tracking Germany's migration debate, the practical question is what these numbers can and cannot prove. Suspect statistics describe police activity and population structure as much as criminality. Reading them as a verdict on national groups stretches the data past what it holds.

The full analysis, including the underlying statistical tables, is available on DW's website for readers who want to examine the figures themselves.