Recent changes to immigration policy could deepen the shortage of care workers and push costs higher for families who rely on paid care, according to experts cited by CNBC.

The warning comes as governments in several advanced economies tighten the rules that govern how foreign care workers can enter and stay. Care sector analysts say the restrictions land on an industry already struggling to fill vacancies, and families who employ carers could ultimately absorb the difference through higher fees.

Who is affected

Three groups face the sharpest impact:

• Families purchasing care. Fewer available workers mean longer waits for home care placements and higher hourly rates, according to the experts CNBC interviewed.
• Care providers and agencies. Operators that depend on overseas recruitment report that tighter rules make it harder to staff shifts, particularly for elderly and disability care.
• Migrant care workers themselves. Those already in the sector or planning to enter face narrower eligibility pathways, which discourages new applicants.

Why the sector is vulnerable

Care work has long relied on international labour. Domestic recruitment has not kept pace with demand from ageing populations, and providers have filled the gap by hiring from abroad. When immigration rules tighten, the sector has few alternative staffing channels.

Experts quoted by CNBC say the consequence is a double squeeze: vacancies stay open longer, and wage competition for the remaining workers drives up prices. Families paying out of pocket for home care or assisted living would feel that pressure directly.

What officials say

Policymakers who back the tighter rules argue they are intended to cut net migration and reduce reliance on overseas labour in the long term. Critics in the care sector respond that no domestic workforce pipeline exists at the scale needed, and that restrictions outpace any credible plan to train local recruits.

What to watch

CNBC's reporting points to several indicators that will show whether the warning holds:

1. Vacancy rates in care roles over the coming quarters.
2. Average hourly rates charged by agencies and private carers.
3. Visa application and approval numbers for care occupations.

How to verify current rules

Immigration policies in this area have shifted repeatedly, and thresholds, occupation lists and deadlines change with each revision. Readers should check the official immigration authority in the relevant country for the rules currently in force before making any plans.

This article summarises expert commentary reported by CNBC and does not constitute legal advice. Anyone affected should consult the official government immigration portal or a licensed immigration adviser for guidance on their specific situation.