Monthly cuts to legal immigration in 2026 are now twice as large as the reductions in illegal immigration at the US-Mexico border, according to David Bier of the Cato Institute, who compared Border Patrol arrest data with figures for immigrant, student and skilled worker visas, refugee admissions and asylum entries at ports of entry. His conclusion: while deportations dominate headlines, the Trump administration's most consequential changes are hitting people who follow the rules.

"The cuts to legal immigration in 2026 are now twice as great on a monthly basis than the cuts to illegal immigration at the border," Bier says. He describes the broader shift as "a radical change" and an underreported story.

The nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute calls the changes to the legal immigration system "drastic" in a recent analysis. Julia Gelatt, MPI's associate director of the US immigration policy program, calls the effort to slow legal immigration "unprecedented."

"The actions by the Trump administration on legal immigration have the potential to cut the level of legal immigration to the U.S. in half this year," Gelatt says. "It's a huge cut to our immigration system and has enormous implications for American citizens and U.S. employers."

What has changed on paper?

The key measures tracked by Bier, Gelatt and other experts include:

• Refugee resettlement cuts: just over 6,000 refugees admitted so far this fiscal year, most of them White South Africans.
• Travel bans affecting 39 countries.
• An indefinite pause on visa processing for nationals of 75 countries.
• An indefinite pause on the diversity visa lottery.
• Increased vetting of social media profiles and posts.

US Citizenship and Immigration Services defends the new approach. "Open-border organizations are upset that legal immigration is no longer a rubber stamp. That's exactly the point," a USCIS spokesperson said by email. "Every application now gets the scrutiny Americans deserve."

Who is affected inside the US?

Legal immigrants already living in the country face new hurdles. USCIS has indefinitely paused decisions for applicants from 39 countries it deems "high-risk," affecting people seeking visas, work permits, green cards and citizenship. Officials have exempted some groups, including certain physicians whose applications the freeze held up.

The delays leave many applicants in limbo and potentially vulnerable to arrest if their paperwork is not approved in time, Bier and Gelatt say.

"The backlogs…that are building up at USCIS mean that a lot of people are falling out of work authorization, falling out of DACA protections, unable to keep their visa status and stay legally in the United States," Gelatt says.

What do the numbers show?

A lag in data reporting means the full picture remains incomplete. But as of January, monthly green card approvals had fallen roughly 50% over one year, according to Bier's analysis.

Cubans have been hit especially hard, Bier says. Green card processing for Cubans dropped to just 15 approvals in the most recent month with available data, while immigration arrests rose around 400% in a year.

"You're saying, 'We need to crack down on illegal immigration because people should do it the right way,' and then you're taking away that right way from people," Bier says.

What happens next in court?

Many of the administration's measures face legal challenges. A federal judge in Massachusetts ruled last month that USCIS cannot enforce its processing pause for 22 plaintiffs who reported lost jobs, mental health struggles and financial hardship caused by the policy.

The administration is also pushing to ramp up denaturalizations — the legal process for revoking US citizenship. "There are a lot of individuals who are citizens who shouldn't be," Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche told CBS News. "We have the same obligation to enforce the laws when it comes to naturalized citizens who committed a fraud or did something improper in getting that citizenship."

Pending Supreme Court rulings could decide whether hundreds of thousands of people lose deportation protections that currently allow them to work legally in the US, and whether children born in the country to undocumented immigrants and temporary visa holders continue to receive birthright citizenship.

Gelatt sees a clear signal in the administration's statements and actions: "It seems like the real goal is to cut immigration and to make it harder for people, even legal immigrants in the United States, to stay in the United States."