A new Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) analysis projects the effects of the reformed H-1B visa lottery scheduled for March 2026, the first selection round to run under the beneficiary-weighted rules US Citizenship and Immigration Services finalized in December 2024.

The March 2026 round marks the practical debut of the biggest change to H-1B selection in years. Instead of counting each registered entry separately, the lottery now selects by unique beneficiary, with each registrant entering once regardless of how many employers file on their behalf.

USCIS adopted the beneficiary-centric system after record registration volumes in FY 2024, when roughly 758,994 eligible registrations competed for the annual cap of 85,000 visas — 65,000 under the standard cap plus 20,000 under the US advanced-degree exemption. Multiple registrations for the same person had inflated the pool and, in USCIS's view, distorted each beneficiary's individual selection odds.

What does the new lottery change?

The reform targets one distortion directly: duplicate registrations.

• Each beneficiary carries one entry in the random draw, no matter how many employers register them.
• If selected, the beneficiary can proceed with any sponsoring petitioner that filed on their behalf.
• Officials framed the change as restoring equal odds per person rather than per registration.

Who is affected?

The March 2026 selection round covers:

• Employers planning to sponsor foreign workers in specialty occupations for fiscal year 2027;
• Prospective H-1B beneficiaries, particularly those in fields where multiple companies compete for the same candidate;
• Immigration practitioners advising on registration timing and petitioner strategy.

For candidates previously registered by several employers, the effective per-person odds no longer scale with the number of petitions. For employers, the incentive to file duplicate registrations through related entities largely disappears.

What does the Penn Wharton analysis project?

The PWBM project, based at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, models budgetary and economic outcomes of US policy changes. Its analysis of the March 2026 lottery examines the projected effects of the beneficiary-weighted draw on the H-1B program.

Readers should consult the full Penn Wharton Budget Model publication for the specific figures, assumptions and projections in the analysis. This summary does not restate the model's estimates and is not legal advice.

Where is the authoritative source?

USCIS publishes the final rule, registration timelines and cap-count updates at uscis.gov. The agency confirms exact registration window dates for each fiscal year's selection ahead of the March 2026 draw.

Employers and beneficiaries should verify deadlines — including the electronic registration period, which typically opens in early March — directly with USCIS announcements, as dates and procedural details are set annually.