The Penn Wharton Budget Model has published an analysis titled "The Impact of President Trump's Deportation Policies: The Social Security Program," examining how the deportation agenda pursued under President Trump would affect the finances of the United States Social Security programme.

The study, released by the Penn Wharton Budget Model at the University of Pennsylvania, models the fiscal consequences of large-scale removal policies for the federal retirement and disability system. The analysis arrives as Washington debates both immigration enforcement levels and the solvency of federal trust funds.

What does the analysis examine?

The Penn Wharton Budget Model applies its budget simulation framework to a central question: what happens to Social Security revenues and outlays when a substantial share of the foreign-born workforce is removed from the economy. The model tracks payroll tax collections, benefit obligations and overall programme balances under deportation scenarios tied to the Trump policy platform.

Who is affected?

The analysis addresses the programme's 70-plus million beneficiaries indirectly. Its focus sits on the contribution side: undocumented and foreign-born workers pay payroll taxes into Social Security, and their removal shrinks the revenue base that funds current benefits.

• Social Security's financing depends on payroll tax contributions from workers.
• Immigration enforcement that reduces the workforce reduces those contributions.
• The Penn Wharton model quantifies the resulting pressure on programme balances.

Why does this matter now?

President Trump has made mass deportation a signature policy commitment, and Social Security faces long-term financing shortfalls that Congress must address. The Penn Wharton analysis connects the two debates, offering lawmakers a numerical picture of how enforcement choices ripple into retirement programme accounts.

Readers should consult the full Penn Wharton Budget Model publication for the specific projections, assumptions and time horizons used in the analysis. This article summarises the release and does not provide legal or financial advice.

The takeaway: deportation policy now has a measured price tag attached to America's largest retirement programme.