U.S.-Mexico border migrant encounters fell to their lowest level in more than 50 years, according to a Pew Research Center analysis.

The finding draws on Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data and marks a sharp reversal from the record-setting years of fiscal 2022 through 2024. The shift puts the southwest border below any comparable period since at least the early 1970s.

What did Pew measure?

Pew's researchers tracked CBP encounter data along the U.S.-Mexico border. They found the most recent figures represent the lowest sustained level in the more-than-five-decade record kept by federal authorities.

"Encounters" is the standard CBP term covering all of the following:

• Apprehensions between ports of entry by U.S. Border Patrol
• Expulsions under Title 42 and Title 8 authorities
• Inadmissibles turned away or processed at official crossings

CBP publishes these numbers monthly through the Office of Field Operations and U.S. Border Patrol. Pew has tracked border statistics in this format for years, building a long-running series for comparison.

How steep is the 50-year drop?

The 50-year reference point indicates the comparable dataset extends back to the early 1970s, when Border Patrol record-keeping expanded and modernized. Pew compared the recent figures with historical series spanning multiple administrations.

The center presented the trend without assigning a single cause. It framed the change instead as a descriptive finding drawn directly from CBP's published monthly releases.

What changed recently?

Pew's analysis points to several overlapping factors behind the decline:

• Reduced migration flows from key sending countries
• Expanded enforcement measures
• Policy shifts affecting asylum processing and removals

The reversal follows a recent peak in encounters, when monthly totals reached historic highs. Pew's analysis confirms the subsequent declines have continued into the latest reporting period, not a single-month anomaly.

What are the policy implications?

Border encounter data shapes several areas of immigration governance:

• Federal budget allocations to CBP and ICE
• Court-mandated monitoring of detention capacity
• Diplomatic discussions with Mexico and Central American governments
• Public debate over enforcement effectiveness

The 50-year low will likely figure in upcoming appropriations hearings and in administration messaging on border security. Advocacy groups on both sides of the immigration debate are likely to cite the new numbers through the next election cycle.

What stays the same?

The drop in numbers does not change the underlying legal framework. Asylum law, removal procedures, and humanitarian parole programs remain governed by existing statute and regulation.

The data describes enforcement outcomes, not statutory change. Migrants should consult licensed immigration counsel or a DOJ-accredited representative for case-specific guidance. The Office of the Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman at DHS remains a federal resource.

Where to verify the data

CBP publishes monthly encounter statistics on its official website. Pew Research Center provides the full analysis and methodology on its own site. The Department of Homeland Security's annual reports to Congress offer additional historical context.