Referrals to the UK's National Referral Mechanism reached their highest level since the record began in the year ending June 2026, according to the latest trafficking statistics. At the same time, the backlog of cases waiting for a conclusive grounds decision increased for the first time since 2022.

The two trends together mark a shift in the shape of the modern slavery system. For several years the outstanding caseload of conclusive grounds decisions had been falling. That decline has now reversed.

What do the new statistics show?

The published figures cover the 12 months to June 2026. They show:

• Referrals into the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) at their highest level since national statistics on trafficking referrals were first collected.
• A rise in the backlog of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision — the determination of whether a person is a confirmed victim of trafficking or modern slavery.
• The first increase in that backlog since 2022, ending a multi-year period of reduction.

The statistics were published later than their usual schedule. The release delay itself drew attention, because timing affects how quickly policy debates and parliamentary scrutiny can respond to the underlying data.

What is the National Referral Mechanism?

The NRM is the UK's formal framework for identifying and supporting potential victims of trafficking and modern slavery. A referral starts the process. First responders — including police, charities and certain public authorities — refer an individual, and trained decision-makers then work through two stages: a reasonable grounds decision, which identifies a possible victim, and a conclusive grounds decision, which confirms or rejects that status.

The conclusive grounds stage is where the backlog sits. Cases waiting at this stage have already crossed the reasonable grounds threshold. A growing queue therefore means confirmed-victim decisions are slowing down, even as more people enter the system.

Who is affected?

The rise in referrals and the renewed backlog growth affect several groups:

• Potential victims, who wait longer for a conclusive grounds decision and for the certainty and support that flow from it.
• Support providers and charities, who must sustain accommodation and assistance for longer periods while decisions pend.
• Decision-makers and the Home Office, which face a rising caseload after years in which the backlog was shrinking.
• Practitioners and legal representatives, whose clients' cases now sit in a longer queue at the conclusive grounds stage.

Why does the timing matter?

The statistics landed in a charged policy context. The government has publicly said it wants to target what it calls "misuse" of the system — the claim that people exploit trafficking protections, for example to frustrate immigration enforcement or removal.

Record-high referrals cut in two directions in that debate. Supporters of stricter rules can point to the sheer volume of referrals as evidence the system is under strain. Refugee and anti-trafficking organisations counter that high numbers reflect better identification of genuine victims, not abuse of the mechanism.

The backlog increase adds a further dimension. If confirmed-victim decisions slow while referrals accelerate, the gap between entering the system and receiving a decision widens, regardless of which explanation of the numbers one accepts.

What happens next?

No policy change was announced alongside the release. The figures stand as the reference point for the next round of debate over the government's "misuse" agenda and over resourcing for conclusive grounds decision-making.

Readers should consult the official statistics release for the full dataset, including breakdowns by referral type, nationality and decision outcome. Anyone with an individual case in the system should seek advice from a qualified legal adviser rather than relying on general reporting of national trends.

Passport File will continue to track quarterly and annual trafficking statistics and any legislative or operational changes that follow from them.