The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) released a new report on 10 November 2025 at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, warning that extreme weather is driving repeated displacement among communities already affected by conflict. The report, No Escape II: The Way Forward, finds that millions of refugees, people forced to flee, and their hosts are caught in an increasingly severe cycle of conflict and climate extremes, with climate shocks undermining recovery and amplifying humanitarian needs.

The headline figures are stark. By mid-2025, 117 million people had been displaced by war, violence and persecution. Three in four of them live in countries facing high-to-extreme exposure to climate-related hazards. Over the past 10 years, weather-related disasters have caused roughly 250 million internal displacements — about 70,000 every day, or two displacements every three seconds.

The report documents the geography of the crisis in concrete terms. Floods have swept South Sudan and Brazil. Record-breaking heat has hit Kenya and Pakistan. Water shortages stretch Chad and Ethiopia. In parts of flood-affected Chad, newly arrived refugees from war-torn Sudan receive less than 10 litres of water per day, far below emergency standards. Since April 2023, nearly 1.3 million people fleeing the conflict in Sudan have sought refuge in South Sudan and Chad — two of the countries least equipped to cope with the climate emergency.

"Around the world, extreme weather is putting people's safety at greater risk. It is disrupting access to essential services, destroying homes and livelihoods, and forcing families – many who have already fled violence – to flee once more," said Filippo Grandi, UN High Commissioner for Refugees. "These are people who have already endured immense loss, and now they face the same hardships and devastation again. They are among the hardest hit by severe droughts, deadly floods and record-breaking heatwaves, yet they have the fewest resources to recover."

Projections for 2040 and 2050

The report's predictive data points to a sharply worsening picture. By 2040, the number of countries facing extreme climate hazards could rise from 3 to 65. By 2050, the hottest fifteen refugee camps in the world — located in Gambia, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Senegal and Mali — are projected to face nearly 200 days or more of hazardous heat stress per year. UNHCR warns that many of these locations are likely to become uninhabitable due to the combination of extreme heat and high humidity.

Environmental degradation compounds the pressure. Three-quarters of Africa's land is deteriorating, and more than half of the continent's settlements for refugees and internally displaced people sit in areas under severe ecological stress, shrinking access to food, water and income. In parts of the Sahel, communities report that climate-linked livelihood losses are driving recruitment into armed groups — evidence, UNHCR says, that environmental stress can fuel cycles of conflict and displacement.

Returns are also affected. In early 2025, 1.2 million refugees went home — but half returned to climate-vulnerable areas, where recovery prospects are weakest.

The finance gap

Funding shortfalls and an inequitable climate finance system leave millions unprotected, the report finds. Fragile and conflict-affected countries hosting refugees receive only a quarter of the climate finance they need, and the vast majority of global climate funding never reaches displaced communities or their hosts.

"Funding cuts are severely limiting our ability to protect refugees and displaced families from the effects of extreme weather. If we want stability, we must invest where people are most at risk," Grandi said. "To prevent further displacement, climate financing needs to reach the communities already living on the edge. They cannot be left alone. This COP must deliver real action, not empty promises."

What UNHCR is asking for

Despite the challenges, the agency stresses that solutions are possible. Displaced and host communities can act as powerful agents of resilience if governments include them in national climate plans, support them through targeted investment, and give them a voice in decisions affecting their future. Most national climate plans still overlook refugees, other displaced people, and their host communities.

Ahead of and during COP30, UNHCR urges governments, financial institutions and the international community to include displaced people and host communities in climate planning and decision-making, invest in adaptation and resilience-building, and ensure climate finance reaches those on the front lines. A senior UNHCR team is present at the summit in Belém to press for these outcomes.

The report, produced with 27 partner organizations including research institutions, private sector actors and refugee-led organizations, builds on last year's analysis with new data and predictive insights. The full findings are available on the UNHCR website. People affected by displacement should consult UNHCR and official national channels for guidance on their specific circumstances.