US net migration fell to between –295,000 and –10,000 in 2025, the first negative reading in at least half a century, according to a January 13, 2026 analysis from the Brookings Institution.

"The first year of the second Trump administration has seen dramatic changes in immigration policy, resulting in a sharp slowdown in net migration to the United States," the researchers wrote. They project net migration of –925,000 to +185,000 for 2026, with the midpoint firmly in negative territory.

What changed at the border?

The drop traces to several categories. Brookings estimates for 2025:

• Green cards issued abroad: 560,000–575,000, down from about 670,000 in 2024
• Refugee admissions: 7,600–12,000, compared with 105,000 in 2024
• Parole and notices to appear at the border: 67,000–70,000, against 1.41 million in 2024
• Entries without inspection: 22,000–39,000

Administrators have all but suspended the refugee program, with an exception for an "unknown number of white South Africans," the analysis notes. January 1 expansions to the travel-ban list, increased vetting, and reduced paperwork are expected to push 2026 green-card issuance to roughly 490,000 in the low scenario.

Which outflows drove the shift?

Removals reached 310,000–315,000 in 2025, up modestly from about 285,000 in 2024. The composition changed: in fiscal 2024 only 18% of ICE removals originated with ICE, but most 2025 removals came from the interior, according to border statistics.

Voluntary departures in immigration court rose to about 40,000, from 10,000 in 2024. Brookings estimates 210,000–405,000 additional people left voluntarily in 2025 in response to the enforcement climate. Funding from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will likely support higher removals in 2026; the low scenario projects 510,000 deportations, implying roughly 1,400 removals per day.

What are the labor-market consequences?

"Breakeven" monthly job growth — the pace needed to hold unemployment steady — fell to 20,000–50,000 in the second half of 2025. Brookings expects that figure to turn negative in 2026. In the low scenario, monthly employment growth consistent with full employment averages between –20,000 and +20,000 jobs in 2026.

Non-farm payrolls grew at about 14,500 per month in the second half of 2025, modestly below the breakeven range, and the unemployment rate has risen 0.3 percentage points over that period.

How do the Brookings estimates differ from official figures?

The Congressional Budget Office estimated +400,000 net migration for 2025, about 550,000 above Brookings' midpoint. A December 2025 Department of Homeland Security announcement claimed 2.5 million "illegal aliens" left the United States in 2025. Brookings calls that figure unreliable.

The DHS total "should not be considered a serious source for an estimate of net migration," the researchers wrote, arguing it adds an inflated removal count to a Current Population Survey-based population decline that the Census Bureau has warned against using to measure the foreign-born population.

What does this mean for the broader economy?

Brookings estimates the policy changes reduced US consumer spending by $40–$60 billion in 2025, with another $10–$40 billion cut projected for 2026 — a $60–$110 billion drag over the two years combined.

GDP growth took a 0.2–0.3 percentage-point hit in 2025 and faces a 0.1–0.3 point drag in 2026. The unemployment rate, the authors argue, will serve as the cleanest signal of whether weakness reflects business-cycle forces the Federal Reserve can address, or simply a smaller labor pool from reduced immigration.